Inganda zikora imiti irimo kwiyongera cyane mu 2025, bitewe n’ivugurura ry’imiterere y’ibicuruzwa n’ibikenewe ndetse n’igabanywa ry’agaciro mu ruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa. Hasi aha hari isesengura ry’impamvu zituma ibiciro byiyongera, impamvu y’itandukaniro ry’inyungu, inzira zo kuvugurura inganda, n’amahirwe yo gushora imari.
I. Ibintu bikurura izamuka ry'ibiciro mu buryo bwimbitse
1. Impinduka mu buryo bw'umwimerere mu bikoresho fatizo
- Ubusumbane mu itangwa rya peteroli: Igabanuka ry'umusaruro wa OPEC+ hamwe n'izamuka rito ry'abakora peteroli batari aba OPEC byatumye Brent crude iguma hejuru y'amadolari 100 kuri buri gati.
- Ubukene bukabije bw'ibikoresho bishya by'ingufu: Ibiciro bya Lithium karubone (urwego rw'inganda ku bateri za LFP) byazamutseho 120% YoY, mu gihe electrolyte ya DMC yarenze ku kigereranyo cya ¥10.000/toni.
- Ibiciro bya karuboni bisobanutse neza: Imisoro ya karuboni ya CBAM yo mu Muryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi ubu ikubiyemo imiti y’ibanze nka ammonia y’ubukorikori na methanol.
2. Gukomera ku nyubako z'ibikoresho
- Kwimura ubushobozi bw'ingufu mu Burayi: BASF n'ibindi bihangange byahagaritse 30% by'ubushobozi bwa amoniya y'ubukorano mu Budage, bimura umusaruro ujya ku nkombe y'ikigobe cya Amerika.
- Ivugurura rya 2.0 ry’Ubushinwa ku bijyanye n’ibicuruzwa: Ibisabwa mu kuvugurura ibidukikije no mu buhanga mu nganda zikora amarangi na titanium dioxide byihutishije isohoka ry’abakora amarangi mato kugeza ku baciriritse.
- Imbogamizi mu bijyanye n'ibikoresho bya politiki y'ubutaka: Ikibazo cyo mu Nyanja Itukura cyateje izamuka rya 300% ry'ibiciro byo kohereza ibicuruzwa muri Aziya-Uburayi, bituma ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa bikoresha ubwikorezi nka TDI byiyongera.
3. Ikiguzi cyo gusimburana mu ikoranabuhanga
- Gucuruza ibikoresho bishingiye ku binyabuzima: Ibiciro bya PLA bifite agaciro ka 40% ugereranyije na PE isanzwe, aho Apple na Tesla bifitanye amasezerano y'igihe kirekire.
- Gushyira mu mwanya ibinyabutabire bya semiconductor: Ibiciro bya aside hydrofluoric ya electronic-grade ultra-pure byarenze $50.000/toni, hamwe n’ubwiza bwa 15% ugereranyije n’ibindi binyabutabire by’Ubuyapani/Koreya y’Epfo.
II. Ikarita yo Gutandukana kw'Inyungu
| Igice | Impinduka mu mikorere y'abakozi (2024 vs. 2025) | Kwagura Ibiciro | Ibikoresho by'ingenzi |
| Ibikoresho bishya by'ingufu | +8.2pc → 21.5% | 35-50% | Uburyo bateri zikoreshwa mu buryo buhamye |
| Ibinyabutabire byinshi | -3.5pc → 6.8% | 10-15% | Ikiguzi cy'inzira ishingiye ku makara |
| Ibinyabutabire byihariye | +5.1pc → 18.3% | 25-40% | Ibikoresho byoroheje by'imodoka bikenewe |
| Ibinyabutabire by'ubuhinzi | +2.3pc → 12.7% | 18-22% | Gukoresha ibihingwa bya GMO + amapfa yo muri Amerika y'Epfo |
III. Kwimura agaciro mu ruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa
1. Abafite umutungo ukomoka ku isoko (urugero, abakora fosfeti na lithiyumu) ni bo biganjemo imbaraga zo kugena ibiciro, aho amasosiyete nka Yuntianhua agera kuri >50% by'inyungu rusange mu gihembwe kimwe.
2. Ibyiciro by'imipaka ifite imipaka myinshi:
- Fluoropolymers: Amafaranga yo gutunganya ibikoresho byo gutandukanya PVDF yageze kuri ¥80.000 kuri toni.
- Imiti ifite ubuziranenge buhanitse cyane: Ibisabwa ku buziranenge bwa isopropanol mu rwego rwa semiconductor byazamutse kuva kuri 99.99% bigera kuri 99.999%.
3. Abatanga serivisi zo guhindura imikorere: Ibigo nka Covestro byashyizeho uburyo bwo "kwishyura imikorere", byongera 30% by'abakiriya bagumana serivisi zabo.
IV. Ingingo z'ingenzi z'iterambere rya 2025
1. Amadirishya yo gusimbuza ikoranabuhanga:
- Inyungu ku kiguzi cya Ethane Cracking iragabanuka, aho PROI y’umushinga wa PDH yagabanutseho 5%.
- Ikiguzi cy'umusaruro wa BDO ushingiye ku binyabuzima cyagabanutseho 25% ugereranije n'inzira za peteroli.
2. Kuvugurura imiterere y'uturere:
- Ikigo cy’ubutayu bwa sulfur-chemical mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati: SABIC yo muri Arabiya Sawudite yubatse uruganda rwa aside sulfure rwa toni 2 ku mwaka ruhendutse kandi ruhendutse.
- Irangi rikoreshwa mu gusiga irangi mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya: Nippon Paint Vietnam ikoresha ubushobozi bwo gusiga irangi ku kigero cya 120%.
3. Ivugurura rya ESG:
- Imishinga ya amoniya ishingiye kuri hydrogen y’icyatsi kibisi ihabwa amafaranga y’ibiciro inshuro eshatu.
- Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi wahagaritse ibicuruzwa birimo PFAS, bituma habaho CAGR irenga 60% ku bicuruzwa bisimbura ibindi.
V. Imbonerahamwe y'ibyemezo by'ishoramari
Ibyihutirwa ku itangwa ry’ingamba:
- Ibikoresho bifite imbogamizi nyinshi: Aramid honeycomb cores, silicon carbide precursors.
- Ibihungabanya imikorere: Guhinduranya adiponitrile bishingiye kuri plasma, guhindura CO₂-kuva kuri DMC.
- Abakinnyi bahishwe: Abacandagura ibyuma barinda ikirere, ibikoresho byo mu kirere.
Ibimenyesha ibyago:
- Amerika yashyizeho imisoro ya 15% ku bikoresho by’ibinyabuzima byo mu Bushinwa (guhera mu kwezi kwa gatatu k’umwaka wa 2025).
- Gutera imbere kwa bateri ya sodium-ion bishobora kugabanya ikenerwa ry'ibikoresho bya lithium.
Uru rwego rurimo kuvugurura uruhererekane rw'agaciro mu buryo bukomeye kuva mu 2008. Amasosiyete afite ubushobozi bwo gutandukanya ikoranabuhanga n'ubushobozi bwo guhuza ibicuruzwa, ndetse n'ibigo bifite uburenganzira buke bwo gukora ibicuruzwa, ni byo by'ingenzi bibandaho. Mu gihe ibiciro bihindagurika cyane, amasosiyete agumana ibicuruzwa mu bubiko munsi y'iminsi 30 azagaragaza ubushobozi bwo guhangana n'inyungu.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-30-2025