Inganda z’imiti zirimo kuzamuka "mu mateka" mu 2025, bitewe n’ivugurura ry’ibikorwa bikenerwa no kugabura agaciro hirya no hino. Hasi ni isesengura ryabashoferi inyuma yizamuka ryibiciro, logique iri inyuma yo gutandukanya inyungu, inzira zo kuvugurura inganda, nuburyo bwo gushora imari.
I. Abashoferi bicaye cyane kubiciro byazamutse
1. Impinduka zimpinduramatwara mubikoresho bito
- Ibicuruzwa bituruka kuri peteroli-isabwa kutaringaniza: Kugabanya umusaruro wa OPEC + hamwe no kwiyongera gukabije kw’abatunganya ibicuruzwa bitari OPEC byatumye Brent iboneka hejuru y’amadorari 100 / barrile.
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- Ibiciro bya karubone bigaragara: Ibiciro bya karuboni ya CBAM y’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi bikubiyemo imiti y’ibanze nka ammonia syntique na methanol.
2. Gutanga ibikoresho-Kuruhande
- Kwimura ubushobozi bw’ibihugu by’i Burayi: BASF n’ibindi bihangange byahagaritse 30% by’ubushobozi bw’amoni bw’ubudage bw’Ubudage, bihindura umusaruro ku nyanja y’Amerika.
- Ivugurura ry’ibicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa 2.0: Ibisabwa byo kuzamura ibidukikije na tekiniki mu nganda zisiga amarangi na dioxyde de titanium byihutishije gusohoka mu bicuruzwa bito n'ibiciriritse.
- Ikibazo cya geopolitiki y’ibikoresho: Ikibazo cy’inyanja Itukura cyateje 300% ibiciro byo kohereza muri Aziya-Uburayi, kwaguka kw'ibiciro ku bicuruzwa byorohereza gutwara abantu nka TDI.
3. Ibiciro Byanyuze-Binyuze muri Tekinoroji Yikoranabuhanga
- Gucuruza ibikoresho bishingiye kuri bio: Ibiciro bya PLA bitegeka 40% premium kurenza PE gakondo, hamwe na Apple na Tesla bifunze mumasezerano maremare.
- Kwimura imiti ya semiconductor: Ibiciro bya ultr-pure-elegitoronike yo mu rwego rwa hydrofluoric aside yarenze $ 50.000 / toni, hamwe na 15% hejuru y’ubuyapani / Koreya yepfo.
II. Ikarita yo Gutandukanya Inyungu
| Igice | Guhindura INZIRA (2024 na 2025) | Kwagura Igiciro | Abashoferi b'ingenzi |
| Ibikoresho bishya byingufu | + 8.2pct → 21.5% | 35-50% | Intambwe ikomeye ya batiri |
| Imiti myinshi | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Inzira ishingiye ku makara igura ibiciro |
| Imiti yihariye | + 5.1pct → 18.3% | 25-40% | Ibikoresho byimodoka byoroheje birakenewe |
| Imiti ikomoka ku buhinzi | + 2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | Kwakira ibihingwa bya GMO + Amapfa yo muri Amerika yepfo |
III. Agaciro Kwimuka Kurenga Urunigi
1. Upstream Resource Holders (urugero, abakora fosifate & lithium) biganje mububasha bwibiciro, hamwe namasosiyete nka Yuntianhua agera kuri 50% yumutungo rusange mugihembwe kimwe.
2. Hagati yo Hagati-Inzitizi:
- Fluoropolymers: Amafaranga yo gutunganya ibikoresho bya PVDF yatwaye, 000 80.000 / toni.
- Imiti ikabije-yuzuye-isuku: Icyiciro cya Semiconductor-isopropanol isabwa isuku yavuye kuri 99,99% igera kuri 99.9999%.
3. Abashinzwe gutanga ibicuruzwa byo hasi: Ibigo nka Covestro byashyizeho uburyo bwo "kwishyura-imikorere", byongera kugumana abakiriya 30%.
IV. 2025 Ingingo z'ingenzi
1. Gusimbuza ikoranabuhanga Windows:
- Ethane yamenetse igiciro cyinyungu iragabanuka, umushinga PDH umushinga ROI wagabanutse munsi ya 5%.
- Bio ishingiye kuri BDO umusaruro ugabanuka 25% ninzira ya peteroli.
2. Kuringaniza Uturere:
- Iburasirazuba bwo hagati ya sulfur-chimique: SABIC yo muri Arabiya Sawudite yubatse toni 2M / umwaka uruganda rwa acide sulfurike ihendutse.
- Ihuriro ry’amajyepfo yuburasirazuba bwa Aziya: Nippon Paint Vietnam ikora ku bushobozi bwa 120%.
3. Isubiramo rya ESG:
- Icyatsi cya hydrogène ishingiye kuri ammonia yakira amafaranga 3x yo kugereranya.
- Umuryango w'ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi urabuza ibicuruzwa birimo PFAS> 60% CAGR kubindi bisobanuro.
V. Icyemezo cyo gushora imari
Ingamba zo Kugabana Ibyingenzi:
- Ibikoresho byinshi-barrière: Aramide yubuki bwibiti, silicon karbide ibanziriza.
- Abahagarika inzira: Synthesis ya adiponitrile ya plasma, CO₂-kuri-DMC ihinduka.
- Ba nyampinga bihishe: Abambura amafoto, kashe yo mu kirere.
Imenyesha ry'ingaruka:
- Amerika ishyiraho amahoro 15% kubikoresho bishingiye kubushinwa (Q3 2025).
- Intungamubiri za Sodium-ion zishobora gusenyuka kubintu bya lithium.
Inganda zirimo kuvugurura agaciro gakomeye kuva mu mwaka wa 2008.Isosiyete zifite itandukaniro ry’ikoranabuhanga hamwe n’ubushobozi bwo guhuza vertical, hamwe n’abakinnyi bafite ibyemezo by’ibicuruzwa bito, ni byo byibandwaho. Mugihe ihindagurika ryibiciro, ibigo bikomeza kubarura ibicuruzwa munsi yiminsi 30 bizerekana inyungu zikomeye.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-30-2025