Kuva aho intambara hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine itangiriye, Uburayi bwahuye n’ikibazo cy’ingufu. Igiciro cya peteroli na gaze karemano cyazamutse cyane, bituma ikiguzi cy’umusaruro w’ibikoresho fatizo by’ubutabire bifitanye isano n’ibikomoka ku bimera cyazamuka cyane.
Nubwo nta nyungu z’umutungo kamere zifite, inganda z’ibinyabutabire zo mu Burayi ziracyafite 18% by’ibinyabutabire byagurishijwe ku isi (hafi tiriyari 4.4 z’amayuani), zikaba ari iza kabiri nyuma ya Aziya, kandi niho BASF, ikigo kinini ku isi gikora ibinyabutabire.
Iyo ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga biri mu kaga, ibiciro by'ibigo by'imiti byo mu Burayi byiyongera cyane. Ubushinwa, Amerika ya Ruguru, Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati n'ibindi bihugu byishingikiriza ku mutungo wabyo kandi ntibigira ingaruka nyinshi.
Mu gihe gito, ibiciro by'ingufu mu Burayi bishobora gukomeza kuba hejuru, mu gihe amasosiyete y'ibinyabutabire yo mu Bushinwa azagira inyungu nziza mu gihe icyorezo mu Bushinwa kigenda gitera imbere.
Hanyuma se, ku bigo by’imiti byo mu Bushinwa, ni iyihe miti izazana amahirwe?
MDI: Icyuho cy'ibiciro cyariyongereye kigera kuri 1000 CNY/MT
Ibigo bya MDI byose bikoresha inzira imwe, inzira ya phosgene y’amazi, ariko bimwe mu bicuruzwa bishobora gukorwa hakoreshejwe umutwe w’amakara n’umutwe wa gaze. Ku bijyanye n’isoko rya CO, methanol na amoniya y’ubukorikori, Ubushinwa bukoresha cyane cyane umusaruro w’ibinyabutabire by’amakara, mu gihe Uburayi na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika bikoresha cyane cyane umusaruro w’ibinyabutabire by’amakara.
Kugeza ubu, ubushobozi bwa MDI bw'Ubushinwa bungana na 41% by'ubushobozi bwose bw'isi, mu gihe Uburayi bungana na 27%. Mu mpera za Gashyantare, ikiguzi cyo gukora MDI hifashishijwe gaze karemano nk'ibikoresho fatizo mu Burayi cyiyongereyeho hafi 2000 CNY/MT, mu gihe mu mpera za Werurwe, ikiguzi cyo gukora MDI hifashishijwe amakara nk'ibikoresho fatizo cyiyongereyeho hafi 1000 CNY/MT. Icyuho cy'ikiguzi ni hafi 1000 CNY/MT.
Amakuru y’ibanze agaragaza ko ibicuruzwa bya MDI byoherejwe mu Bushinwa byarengeje 50%, harimo n’ibyoherejwe mu mahanga byose mu 2021 bigera kuri MT miliyoni 1.01, izamuka rya 65% ry’umwaka ku mwaka. MDI ni ibicuruzwa bicuruzwa ku isi, kandi igiciro ku isi kirafitanye isano cyane. Ikiguzi cyo hejuru mu mahanga cyitezweho kongera ubushobozi bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga n’igiciro cy’ibicuruzwa by’Abashinwa.
TDI: Icyuho cy'ibiciro cyariyongereye kigera kuri 1500 CNY/MT
Kimwe na MDI, ibigo bya TDI ku isi byose bikoresha inzira ya fosgene, muri rusange bikoresha inzira ya fosgene mu cyiciro cy'amazi, ariko bimwe mu bicuruzwa bishobora gukorwa hakoreshejwe umutwe w'amakara n'umutwe wa gaze.
Mu mpera za Gashyantare, ikiguzi cyo gukora MDI hifashishijwe gaze karemano nk'ibikoresho fatizo mu Burayi cyiyongereyeho hafi 2.500 CNY/MT, mu gihe mu mpera za Werurwe, ikiguzi cyo gukora MDI hifashishijwe amakara nk'ibikoresho fatizo cyiyongereyeho hafi 1.000 CNY/MT. Icyuho cy'ibiciro cyariyongereye kigera kuri 1500 CNY/MT.
Kugeza ubu, ubushobozi bwa TDI bw'Ubushinwa bungana na 40% by'ubushobozi bwose bw'isi, naho Uburayi bungana na 26%. Kubwibyo, izamuka ry'ibiciro bya gaze karemano mu Burayi rizatuma nta kabuza ikiguzi cya TDI cy'umusaruro kizamukaho hafi 6500 CNY / MT.
Ku isi yose, Ubushinwa ni bwo bushora imari mu mahanga ya TDI. Dukurikije imibare ya gasutamo, ibicuruzwa bya TDI byoherezwa mu mahanga by’Ubushinwa bigera kuri 30%.
TDI nayo ni ibicuruzwa by’ubucuruzi ku isi, kandi ibiciro ku isi birafitanye isano rikomeye. Ibiciro biri hejuru mu mahanga byitezweho kongera ubushobozi bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga ndetse n’igiciro cy’ibicuruzwa byo mu Bushinwa.
Aside forimike: Ingufu zikomeye, igiciro cyikubye kabiri.
Aside formike ni imwe mu miti ikomeye cyane muri uyu mwaka, yavuye kuri 4.400 CNY/MT mu ntangiriro z'umwaka igera kuri 9.600 CNY/MT mu minsi ishize. Umusaruro wa aside formike ahanini utangira kuva kuri methanoli karubonelike ijya kuri methyl formate, hanyuma igahinduka aside formike. Kubera ko methanoli ihora itembera mu buryo bw'imyitozo, ibikoresho fatizo bya aside formike ni syngas.
Kugeza ubu, Ubushinwa n'Uburayi bifite 57% na 34% by'ubushobozi bwo gukora aside formike ku isi, mu gihe ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga birenga 60%. Muri Gashyantare, umusaruro wa aside formike mu gihugu waragabanutse, kandi igiciro cyarazamutse cyane.
Ibiciro bikomeye bya aside formike mu gihe hari ikibazo cy’ubukene bukabije biterwa ahanini n’ibibazo by’ibicuruzwa haba mu Bushinwa no mu mahanga, ishingiro ryabyo rikaba ari ikibazo cy’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere mu mahanga, ndetse ikirenzeho, ni ukugabanuka k’umusaruro w’Ubushinwa.
Byongeye kandi, ubushobozi bwo guhangana bw'ibicuruzwa biri inyuma mu nganda zikora imiti ikoreshwa mu makara nabwo ni bwiza. Ibicuruzwa bikomoka ku makara ahanini ni methanol na ammonia y’ubukorano, bishobora kwaguka no kuri aside asetiki, ethylene glycol, olefin na urea.
Dukurikije uko imibare ibivuga, inyungu ku giciro cyo gukora amakara ya methanol irenga 3000 CNY/MT; Inyungu ku giciro cyo gukora amakara ya urea igera kuri 1700 CNY/MT; Inyungu ku giciro cyo gukora amakara ya aside asetiki igera kuri 1800 CNY/MT; Ingaruka ku giciro cya ethylene glycol na olefin mu gukora amakara muri rusange irakurwaho.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ukwakira-19-2022