Mu 2022, bitewe n’igiciro kinini cy’ibiciro by’amakara mbisi ndetse no gukomeza kwiyongera kw’umusaruro w’imbere mu gihugu ku isoko rya methanol yo mu gihugu, byanyuze mu cyerekezo cya “W” cyinyeganyeza hamwe na amplitude ntarengwa ya 36%.Dutegereje 2023, abari mu nganda bemeza ko isoko rya methanol y'uyu mwaka rizakomeza kugendana na macro ndetse n'inganda zizenguruka.Hamwe noguhindura amasoko nibisabwa hamwe noguhindura ibiciro byibanze, biteganijwe ko umusaruro uziyongera icyarimwe, isoko rizaba rihamye kandi rihamye.Irerekana kandi ibiranga umuvuduko wo kongera ubushobozi bwumusaruro, impinduka mumiterere yabaguzi, nihindagurika ryinshi kumasoko.Muri icyo gihe, ingaruka zitangwa mu mahanga ku isoko ry’imbere mu gihugu zishobora kugaragara cyane mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka.
Iterambere ryubushobozi riratinda
Dukurikije imibare yatanzwe na Henan Chemical Network, mu 2022, ingufu za methanol mu gihugu cyanjye zari toni miliyoni 5.545, kandi umusaruro mushya wa methanol ku isi wibanze mu Bushinwa.Kugeza mu mpera za 2022, igihugu cyanjye cyose umusaruro wa methanol wari ufite toni zigera kuri miliyoni 113.06, bingana na 59% by’umusaruro rusange ku isi, kandi umusaruro ufatika wari hafi toni miliyoni 100, wiyongereyeho 5.7% umwaka -kuri - umwaka.
Han Hongwei, visi perezida w’ishyirahamwe ry’inganda zikomoka kuri peteroli n’inganda, yavuze ko mu 2023, umusaruro w’inganda za methanol mu gihugu cyanjye ukomeje kwiyongera, ariko umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere uzagabanuka.Mu 2023, igihugu cyanjye gishya cya methanol gishobora kuba hafi toni miliyoni 4.9.Muri kiriya gihe, umusaruro wa methanol yo mu gihugu wose uzagera kuri toni miliyoni 118, umwaka -kumwaka wiyongereyeho 4.4%.Kugeza ubu, ibikoresho bishya-byabyaye amakara -kugera kuri metani biragabanuka cyane, bitewe ahanini no kuzamura intego ya “double carbone” hamwe n’igiciro kinini cy’ishoramari ry’imishinga y’imiti y’amakara.Niba ubushobozi bushya bushobora guhinduka neza mubushobozi bw’umusaruro mu gihe kiri imbere nabwo bugomba kwitondera ubuyobozi bwa politiki y’igenamigambi rya “Gahunda ya cumi na kane-Yumwaka” mu cyerekezo cy’inganda nshya z’imiti y’amakara, ndetse n’impinduka z’ibidukikije politiki yo kurengera hamwe n’amakara.
Dukurikije amakuru yatanzwe ku isoko ku murongo wa mbere, guhera ku ya 29 Mutarama, igiciro rusange cy’ubucuruzi bwa methanol yo mu gihugu cyazamutse kigera ku mafaranga 2600 (igiciro cya toni, kimwe hepfo), ndetse n’icyambu ndetse kikaba cyarazamutse kigera ku 2.800, ubwiyongere buri kwezi bugera kuri 13 %.Ati: “Ingaruka zo gutangiza ubushobozi bushya ku isoko zishobora kugaragara mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka, kandi biteganijwe ko izamuka ry'ibiciro bya methanol mu ntangiriro z'umwaka biteganijwe ko rizakomeza.”Han Hongwei ati.
Imiterere yimikoreshereze irahinduka
Ushinzwe umushinga wa Zhongyuan Futures Methanol yavuze ko kubera gukumira no kugenzura iki cyorezo ndetse n’intege nke za macroeconomic zacitse intege, imiterere y’imikoreshereze ya methanol nayo izahinduka.Muri byo, umuvuduko witerambere wamakara -to -olefine ukoreshwa hafi 55% urashobora gutinda, kandi ikoreshwa ryinganda gakondo zimanuka ziteganijwe kongera kwiyongera.
Cui Huajie, ushinzwe imicungire y’imiti ya Henan Ruiyuanxin, yavuze ko ibikenerwa bya olefine byagabanutse kuva mu 2022, kandi n’ubwo isoko rya methanol mbisi ryahinduwe n’ihungabana, rikomeje kuba hejuru.Mugihe cyigiciro kinini, amakara -to -olefin ikomeza igihombo cyumwaka.Ingaruka zibi, iterambere ryamakara -to -olefin yerekanye ibimenyetso byo gutinda.Hamwe numushinga ntarengwa wo gutunganya no guhuza imiti mubikorwa byimbere mu gihugu muri 2022 -Shenghong gutunganya no gutanga umusaruro wuzuye, umushinga wa Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) wa methanol uzaba toni miliyoni 2.4 mubitekerezo.Igipimo nyacyo cyo kwiyongera kwa olefine kuri methanol bizakomeza kugenda gahoro.
Nk’uko byatangajwe n'umuyobozi w'itsinda rya Henan Energy Group, mu buryo bwa gakondo bwo munsi ya methanol, imishinga myinshi ya acide acike izatangizwa kuva 2020 kugeza 2021 hagamijwe inyungu nyinshi, kandi ubushobozi bwa acide acike bwakomeje kwiyongera buri mwaka Toni miliyoni imwe mumyaka ibiri ishize.Muri 2023, biteganijwe ko hongerwaho toni miliyoni 1.2 za acide acetike, hagakurikiraho toni 260.000 za metani chloride, toni 180.000 za methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) na toni 550.000 za N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF).Muri rusange, ubwiyongere bukenewe mu nganda gakondo za methanol zigenda ziyongera, kandi uburyo bwo gukoresha methanol mu gihugu bwongeye kwerekana inzira zitandukanye z’iterambere, kandi imiterere y’imikoreshereze irashobora guhinduka.Nyamara, gahunda yo kubyaza umusaruro ubwo bushobozi bushya mu nganda gakondo zo hasi cyane yibanda cyane mu gice cya kabiri cyangwa mu mpera zumwaka, izaba ifite inkunga nkeya ku isoko rya methanol mu 2023.
Guhungabana kw'isoko byanze bikunze
Dukurikije imiterere n'ibisabwa muri iki gihe, Shao Huiwen, umuyobozi mukuru ushinzwe gutanga ibisobanuro ku isoko, yavuze ko ubushobozi bwo gukora methanol yo mu gihugu bumaze kubona urugero runaka rw’ubushobozi buke, ariko kubera ko igiciro kinini cy’ibikoresho fatizo bya methanol bishobora gukomeza kugira ingaruka, niba ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora methanol bushobora gutegurwa mu 2023 hakurikijwe gahunda hakurikijwe gahunda Umusaruro uracyakomeje kugaragara, kandi umusaruro nawo ukaba wibanze mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka, bikazaba byiza mu ishyirwaho rya metani isoko mu gice cya mbere cya 2023.
Urebye uburyo bwo gukora ibikoresho bishya bya methanol mumahanga, ubushobozi bwo kubyaza umusaruro bwibanze mugice cya kabiri cyumwaka.Umuvuduko wo gutumiza mu mahanga urashobora kugaragara mugice cya kabiri cyumwaka.Niba ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga byiyongereye, isoko rya methanol yo mu gihugu rizakomeza guhura n'ingaruka z'ibicuruzwa byatumijwe mu mahanga mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka.
Byongeye kandi, mu 2023, hateganijwe inganda gakondo zo munsi ya methanol n’inganda zigenda zivuka ziteganijwe gushyira mu bikorwa umusaruro mushya, muri zo ubushobozi bushya bwa MTO bugizwe ahanini n’umusaruro uhuriweho, lisansi isukuye ya metani ifite isoko ryiyongera mu rwego rw’ingufu nshya , methanol isabwa kwiyongera, ariko umuvuduko witerambere urashobora gukomeza kugenda gahoro.Isoko rya methanol yo mu gihugu muri rusange riracyari mubihe byinshi.Biteganijwe ko isoko rya methanol yo mu gihugu rizazamuka mbere hanyuma rigahagarara mu 2023, kandi birashoboka ko byahinduka mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka ntibishobora kuvaho.Nyamara, kubera igiciro kinini cyamakara mbisi na gaze karemano, biragoye kuzamura isoko rya methanol mugihe gito, kandi ihungabana rusange ntirizabura.
Abashinzwe inganda bavuze ko impuzandengo y’ubwiyongere buri mwaka y’umusaruro wa methanol mu myaka itanu iri imbere biteganijwe ko uzaba uri hagati ya 3% na 4%.Muri icyo gihe, hamwe no guhuza inganda no kuzamura ikoranabuhanga, toni zirenga miliyoni ya methanol kugeza igikoresho cyo guhuza olefin kiracyari inzira nyamukuru, karubone yicyatsi nibindi bigenda bigaragara bizaba inyongera.Methanol kuri aromatics na methanol kuri lisansi nayo izabona amahirwe mashya yiterambere hamwe no kwaguka kwinganda, ariko igikoresho cyifashisha kwishyira hamwe kiracyari inzira nyamukuru yiterambere, ingufu z ibiciro zizaba mumaboko yinganda nini zikomeye, kandi phenomenon ihindagurika rinini ku isoko rya methanol biteganijwe ko izanozwa.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-08-2023