Mu 2022, bitewe n’ibiciro by’amakara biri hejuru cyane ndetse n’ubushobozi bw’umusaruro w’imbere mu gihugu bukomeje kwiyongera, byanyuze mu muvuduko wa “W” ugera ku kigero cya 36%. Mu gihe dutegereje umwaka wa 2023, abahanga mu nganda bizera ko isoko rya methanol ry’uyu mwaka rizakomeza kujyana n’imiterere rusange y’inganda ndetse n’imigendekere y’inganda. Hamwe no kuvugurura isano y’ibicuruzwa n’ibikenewe ndetse no kuvugurura ikiguzi cy’ibikoresho fatizo, byitezwe ko umusaruro uzakwira icyarimwe, isoko rizaba rihamye kandi rihamye. Bigaragaza kandi imiterere yo kugabanya iterambere ry’ubushobozi bw’umusaruro, impinduka mu miterere y’abaguzi, n’ihindagurika ryinshi ku isoko. Muri icyo gihe, ingaruka z’ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga ku isoko ry’imbere mu gihugu zishobora kugaragara cyane cyane mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka.
Umuvuduko w'izamuka ry'ubushobozi uragabanuka
Dukurikije imibare yavuye muri Henan Chemical Network, mu 2022, ubushobozi bwo gukora methanol mu gihugu cyanjye bwari toni miliyoni 5.545, kandi ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora methanol ku isi bwari bugizwe ahanini n'Ubushinwa. Mu mpera za 2022, ubushobozi bwose bwo gukora methanol mu gihugu cyanjye bwari toni miliyoni 113.06, bungana na 59% by'ubushobozi bwose bwo gukora ku isi, kandi ubushobozi bwo gukora neza bwari toni miliyoni 100, ubwiyongere bwa 5.7% buri mwaka.
Han Hongwei, visi perezida w’ishyirahamwe ry’inganda zikora peteroli n’ibinyabutabire rya Henan, yavuze ko mu 2023, ubushobozi bw’igihugu cyanjye mu gukora methanol bukomeje kwiyongera, ariko umuvuduko w’iterambere uzagabanuka. Muri 2023, ubushobozi bushya bw’igihugu cyanjye mu gukora methanol bushobora kuba toni miliyoni 4.9. Muri icyo gihe, ubushobozi bwose bw’umusaruro w’imethanol mu gihugu buzagera kuri toni miliyoni 118, ubwiyongere bw’umwaka ku mwaka bwa 4.4%. Muri iki gihe, igikoresho gishya cyakozwe mu gukora methanol kigabanuka cyane, ahanini bitewe no guteza imbere intego ya "karubone ebyiri" n’ikiguzi kinini cy’ishoramari ry’imishinga y’ibinyabutabire by’amakara. Niba ubushobozi bushya bushobora guhinduka ubushobozi nyabwo mu gukora mu gihe kizaza, nabyo bigomba kwitabwaho ku buyobozi bwa politiki y’igenamigambi rya "Gahunda ya cumi n’ine y’imyaka itanu" mu cyerekezo cy’inganda nshya z’ibinyabutabire by’amakara, ndetse n’impinduka mu kurengera ibidukikije na politiki y’amakara.
Nk’uko amakuru atangwa ku isoko abigaragaza, kugeza ku ya 29 Mutarama, igiciro cy’ubucuruzi cya methanol yo mu gihugu cyazamutse kigera kuri 2.600 yuan (igiciro cya toni, kimwe kiri hasi), ndetse igiciro cya port cyazamutse kigera kuri 2.800 yuan, kwiyongera kwa buri kwezi kugera kuri 13%. Han Hongwei yagize ati: “Ingaruka zo gutangiza ubushobozi bushya ku isoko zishobora kugaragara mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka, kandi biteganijwe ko kongera kuzamuka kw’igiciro cya methanol mu ntangiriro z’umwaka bizakomeza.”
Impinduka mu miterere y'imikoreshereze
Ushinzwe umushinga wa Zhongyuan Futures Methanol yavuze ko bitewe no gukumira no kurwanya icyorezo ndetse no kugabanuka k'ubukungu rusange, imiterere y'ikoreshwa rya methanol mu gihe kizaza nayo izahinduka. Muri byo, umuvuduko w'iterambere ry'amakara -to-olefini hamwe n'ikoreshwa rya 55% ushobora kugabanuka, kandi biteganijwe ko ikoreshwa ry'inganda zisanzwe zo mu nkengero z'amazi rizongera kwiyongera.
Cui Huajie, ushinzwe ishami rya Henan Ruiyuanxin mu bijyanye n’imiti, yavuze ko ibyo olefini zikenera byagabanutse kuva mu 2022, kandi nubwo isoko rya methanol ritabirwa ryahinduwe n’ihindagurika ry’ikirere, riracyari hejuru cyane. Mu gihe cy’ibiciro biri hejuru, amakara -to -olefini akomeza gutakaza igihombo mu mwaka wose. Bitewe n’ibi, iterambere rya -to -olefini ryagaragaje ibimenyetso byo kugabanuka. Hamwe n’umushinga wo gutunganya no guhuza imiti mu buryo bugezweho mu gihugu muri 2022 -Shenghong no gutunganya umusaruro wose, umushinga wa Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) wa methanol uzaba toni miliyoni 2.4 mu buryo bw’imitekerereze. Igipimo nyacyo cy’ubwiyongere bw’ibikenewe bya olefin kuri methanol kizakomeza kugabanuka.
Nk’uko byatangajwe n’umuyobozi wa Henan Energy Group, mu gice gisanzwe cya methanol, imishinga myinshi ya aside asetiki izatangizwa kuva mu 2020 kugeza 2021 bitewe n’inyungu nyinshi, kandi ubushobozi bwo gukora aside asetiki bwakomeje kwiyongeraho toni miliyoni 1 buri mwaka mu myaka ibiri ishize. Muri 2023, biteganijwe ko hongerwaho toni miliyoni 1.2 za aside asetiki, hagakurikiraho toni 260.000 za methane chloride, toni 180.000 za methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) na toni 550.000 za N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF). Muri rusange, kwiyongera kw’ibikenewe mu nganda zisanzwe za methanol biriyongera, kandi imiterere y’imikoreshereze ya methanol mu gihugu yongera kugaragaza icyerekezo cy’iterambere ritandukanye, kandi imiterere y’imikoreshereze ishobora guhinduka. Ariko, gahunda zo gukora ubu bushobozi bushya mu nganda zisanzwe zikoreshwa mu gutunganya ibikomoka ku bimera zikunze kwibandwaho cyane cyane mu gice cya kabiri cyangwa mu mpera z'umwaka, aho bizaba bidafite inkunga ihagije ku isoko rya methanol mu 2023.
Ihungabana ry'isoko ni ngombwa
Dukurikije imiterere y’ibicuruzwa n’ibikenewe ubu, Shao Huiwen, umusesenguzi mukuru w’isoko, yavuze ko ubushobozi bwo gukora methanol mu gihugu bumaze kugira ubushobozi burenze urugero, ariko kubera ikiguzi kiri hejuru, imiterere y’ibikoresho fatizo bya methanol ishobora gukomeza kugira ingaruka, niba ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora methanol bushobora gutegurwa mu 2023 hakurikijwe gahunda nk’uko biteganywa n’umushinga, umusaruro uracyari kugaragara, kandi umusaruro nawo urimo kwibandwaho mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka, ibyo bikaba bizaba byiza mu gushinga isoko rya methanol mu gice cya mbere cya 2023.
Ukurikije inzira yo gukora ibikoresho bishya bya methanol mu mahanga, ubushobozi bwo gukora bushyirwa mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka. Igitutu cyo gutumiza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga gishobora kugaragara mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka. Niba ibicuruzwa bigurishwa mu mahanga bihendutse byiyongera, isoko rya methanol mu gihugu rizakomeza guhura n'ingaruka z'ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka.
Byongeye kandi, muri 2023, inganda zisanzwe zikora methanol n’inganda zikiri kuzamuka ziteganya gushyira mu bikorwa ibikoresho bishya, aho ubushobozi bushya bwa MTO ari umusaruro uhujwe, lisansi ya methanol ifite isoko ryiyongera mu rwego rw’ingufu nshya, icyifuzo cya methanol cyitezwe kwiyongera, ariko umuvuduko w’izamuka ushobora gukomeza kugabanuka. Isoko rya methanol mu gihugu muri rusange riracyari mu rwego rwo gukwirakwiza umusaruro mwinshi. Biteganijwe ko isoko rya methanol mu gihugu rizabanza kuzamuka hanyuma rigahagarara mu 2023, kandi birashoboka ko habaho impinduka mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka. Ariko, bitewe n’igiciro kinini cy’amakara n’umwuka karemano, biragoye kunoza isoko rya methanol mu gihe gito, kandi ihungabana muri rusange ni ngombwa.
Abahanga mu nganda bavuze ko impuzandengo y’izamuka ry’ubushobozi bw’umusaruro wa methanol mu myaka itanu iri imbere yitezwe kuba hagati ya 3% na 4%. Muri icyo gihe, hamwe no guhuza inganda no kuvugurura ikoranabuhanga, toni zirenga miliyoni imwe z’igikoresho cyo guhuza methanol na olefin kiracyari ikintu gisanzwe, karubone ihumanya ikirere n’izindi nzira zizaba inyongera. Methanol kuva kuri aromatike na methanol kuva kuri lisansi nabyo bizahabwa amahirwe mashya yo gutera imbere hamwe no kwaguka kw’urwego rw’inganda, ariko igikoresho cyigenga kiracyari intambwe ikomeye mu iterambere, imbaraga z’ibiciro zizaba ziri mu maboko y’ibigo bikomeye, kandi ikibazo cy’ihindagurika rikomeye ku isoko rya methanol cyitezwe kunozwa.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-08-2023