Umwaka wa 2023 uragenda wiyongera. Hamwe no kunoza politiki zo gukumira no kurwanya icyorezo, imbaraga z'ingamba zo kugabanya ubwiyongere bw'ubukungu n'ingaruka nke z'ibanze, ibigo byinshi by'ubushakashatsi biteganya ko ukwiyongera k'umusaruro rusange w'Ubushinwa ku mwaka ku mwaka kuzazamuka cyane muri uyu mwaka. Nk'inganda z'ingenzi mu bukungu bw'igihugu, inganda z'ibinyabutabire zihuza umutungo n'ingufu bitandukanye, mu gihe ukugabanuka k'umutungo bifitanye isano itaziguye n'ibyo abaturage bakeneye buri munsi. Muri 2023, inganda z'ibinyabutabire zigomba gusuzuma ihindagurika ry'ibicuruzwa ndetse n'ihindagurika ry'inzira, none se ni izihe nzego zizaba ingenzi cyane mu gushora imari shingiro? Kugira ngo abasomyi bashimishe, ingamba zo gushora imari muri peteroli n'ibinyabutabire mu bigo by'imigabane nka Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities na China Merchants Securities zizatunganywa mu buryo bwuzuye.
Inama Nkuru y’Ubukungu iherutse gutangazwa yavuze neza ko hakwiye gushyirwamo imbaraga mu kwagura ibyo abantu bakeneye mu gihugu, kandi ivugurura riherutse gukorwa kuri politiki yo kurwanya icyorezo ryihutishije isoko ry’abaguzi mu gihugu. Dukurikije ibiteganijwe, amasosiyete menshi y’ubucuruzi yemera ko: Mu 2023, icyifuzo cy’ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe by’imiti cyitezwe kugaruka ku iterambere, kandi urwego rushya rw’ibikoresho by’imiti rushinzwe kuvugurura ingufu nshya, ububiko bw’ingufu, inganda za semiconductor n’iza gisirikare ruzakomeza kugira ubucuruzi bwiza. Muri byo, ibikoresho bya semiconductor, ibikoresho bya photovoltaic, ibikoresho bya lithium n’ibindi bikwiye kwitabwaho n’abashoramari.
Ibikoresho bya semiconductor: koresha uburyo bwo gusimbuza ibintu mu gihugu kugira ngo wihutishe iterambere
Mu 2022, bitewe n’ibidukikije by’ubukungu ku isi ndetse n’ihindagurika ry’ubukungu bw’inganda ndetse n’ingaruka zabyo zikomeje kwiyongera, inganda zose z’ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga zahuye n’ikibazo cy’imikorere. Ariko muri rusange, inganda z’ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga mu Bushinwa ziracyakura.
Raporo y’ubushakashatsi ku byerekeye imari ya Guoxin yagaragaje ko igipimo cy’ibikoresho bya semiconductor mu gihugu cyanjye cyari hafi 10% gusa mu 2021, kandi cyari cyaragabanutse mu bijyanye n’ubukungu bw’ibyiciro no guhangana. Ariko, mu gihe kirekire, inganda z’ibihugu byanjye zizatangira inzira yo guhanga udushya zigenga. Biteganijwe ko ibikoresho n’ibikoresho byo mu gihugu bishobora kubona umutungo n’amahirwe menshi, kandi uruziga rw’ibindi bikoresho byo mu gihugu imbere rwitezweho kugabanuka.
Mu myaka ya vuba aha, icyifuzo cy’ibikoresho bya semiconductor n’amasoko y’abaguzi cyariyongereye cyane. Mu 2021, ku isi hose, ibicuruzwa bya semiconductor byageze kuri miliyari 555.9 z’amadolari y’Amerika, bingana na miliyari 45.5 z’amadolari y’Amerika mu 2020; biteganijwe ko bizakomeza kwiyongera muri 2022, kandi ibicuruzwa bya semiconductor bizagera kuri miliyari 601.4 z’amadolari y’Amerika. Hari ubwoko bwinshi bw’ibikoresho bya semiconductor, kandi bitatu bya mbere ku isoko ni silicon wafers, gaze, na molding y’urumuri. Byongeye kandi, isoko rya polishing fluid na polishing pads, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, wet chemicals, na sputtering target ni 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, na 3.0%, uko bikurikirana.
Raporo y’ubushakashatsi ku byerekeye imari ya Guangfa yemera ko guca mu ishami ry’ibikoresho bya semiconductor (ibinyabutabire by’ikoranabuhanga) binyuze mu bushakashatsi bw’umwimerere n’iterambere cyangwa kongera ihuzwa no kugura ari icyitegererezo gisanzwe ku bigo by’ibinyabutabire gushaka impinduka mu myaka ya vuba aha. Nubwo ibigo byatsinze bishobora kubona agaciro kanini ku isoko mu gihe birushaho kwihuta mu nganda, twazanye iterambere ry’inyongera ebyiri. Mu iterambere ryihuse ry’inganda za semiconductor zo mu gihugu, ibigo bifitanye isano n’ibikoresho nabyo byazanye amahirwe meza yo gusimbuza ibigo byo mu gihugu. Amwe mu masosiyete afite imbaraga zikomeye mu bushakashatsi no mu iterambere n’urwego rw’abakiriya batsinze, kandi afite impinduka nziza mu bicuruzwa no kuvugurura, byitezwe ko azahura n’iterambere ryihuse ry’inganda za semiconductor.
Ping An Securities Research ivuga ko hari ibintu byinshi nk'"uruhererekane rwa silicon" n'uruhererekane rw'ubukungu rusange, kandi ko inganda za semiconductor zitezwe kuzagabanuka mu 2023.
Raporo y’ubushakashatsi ku byerekeye imari n’umutungo kamere yo mu Burengerazuba bw’Isi yizera ko kwiyongera kw’igenzura ry’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga muri Amerika bizihutisha uburyo bwo gusimbura ibikoresho bya semiconductor mu gihugu imbere. Bafite icyizere ku bikoresho bya semiconductor, ibice n’ibikoresho bifitanye isano, ndetse n’isoko rya silicon carbide.
Ibikoresho bya photovoltaic: Isoko rya POE ryo ku rwego rwa miliyari icumi rirategereje kwinjira
Mu 2022, mu rwego rwo guteza imbere politiki y'igihugu cyanjye, umubare w'ibikoresho bishya byashyizwe mu nganda zikora amashanyarazi ya photovoltaic mu gihugu wiyongereye cyane, kandi icyifuzo cya filime ya kole ya photovoltaic nacyo cyariyongereye.
Ibikoresho fatizo bya filime ya kole ya photovoltaic bigabanyijemo ubwoko bubiri: ethylene-ethyl acetate community (EVA) na polyolefin elastomer (POE). EVA, nk'ibikoresho fatizo by'ingenzi bya filime ya kole ya photovoltaic ubu, ifite urwego rwo hejuru rwo gutumiza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga, kandi ifite umwanya munini wo kubikoresha mu gihe kizaza. Muri icyo gihe, byitezwe ko icyifuzo cya EVA mu rwego rwa filime ya kole ya photovoltaic mu gihugu cyanjye mu 2025 gishobora kugera kuri 45.05%.
Indi POE y'ibikoresho fatizo ikoreshwa cyane ishobora gukoreshwa ku mashanyarazi ya photovoltaic, imodoka, insinga, ifuro, ibikoresho byo mu rugo n'ahandi. Kuri ubu, filime ya kole ikoreshwa cyane muri photovoltaic yabaye agace gakoreshwa cyane muri POE. Dukurikije "Ikarita y'Iterambere ry'Inganda za Photovoltaic mu Bushinwa (Inyandiko ya 2021)", igipimo cy'isoko rya filime ya kole ya POE yo mu gihugu na polyethylene ya foam (EPE) muri 2021 cyariyongereye kigera kuri 23.1%. Mu myaka ya vuba aha, bitewe n'izamuka ry'umusaruro w'ibice bya photovoltaic mu gihugu cyanjye no gukomeza kwinjira kwa POE muri filime ya kole ya photovoltaic, icyifuzo cya POE cyo mu gihugu cyariyongereye cyane.
Ariko, kubera ko inzira yo gukora POE ifite imbogamizi nyinshi, ubu, amasosiyete yo mu gihugu nta bushobozi afite bwa POE, kandi ikoreshwa ryose rya POE mu gihugu cyanjye rishingiye ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga. Kuva mu 2017, amasosiyete yo mu gihugu yagiye ateza imbere ibicuruzwa bya POE bikurikiranye. Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry n'andi masosiyete yigenga biteganijwe ko bizasimbura POE mu gihugu mu gihe kizaza.
Ibikoresho bya bateri ya Lithium: kohereza ibikoresho bine by'ingenzi byongerewe
Mu 2022, isoko ry’ibinyabiziga bishya bikoresha ingufu n’ibinyabiziga bya lithium mu Bushinwa ryakomeje kuba hejuru, bituma ibicuruzwa bya bateri ya lithium byiyongera cyane. Nk’uko imibare y’ishyirahamwe ry’imodoka mu Bushinwa ibigaragaza, kuva muri Mutarama kugeza mu Ugushyingo 2022, umusaruro n’igurishwa ry’ibinyabiziga bishya bikoresha ingufu mu gihugu byuzuye miliyoni 6.253 na miliyoni 6.067, uko bikurikirana, bikaba byari ukwiyongera k’umwaka ushize, kandi umugabane w’isoko wageze kuri 25%.
Ikigo cy’Ubushakashatsi ku Nganda zikoresha Ikoranabuhanga Rihanitse (GGII) cyitezweho kugurisha imodoka nshya zikoreshwa mu ngufu zirenga miliyoni 6.7 mu 2022; biteganijwe ko isoko ry’imodoka nshya zikoreshwa mu ngufu mu Bushinwa rizarenga miliyoni 9 mu 2023. Muri 2022, igipimo cy’ubwiyongere bw’imodoka zikoresha ingufu mu Bushinwa kiteganijwe kurenga 100%, igipimo cy’ubwiyongere bw’imodoka zikoresha ingufu mu gutwara bateri zikoreshwa ...
Amakuru agaragaza ko mu gice cya mbere cya 2022, ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi bya Lithium byo mu Bushinwa byohereje toni 770.000, byiyongereyeho 62% ku mwaka; kohereza ibikoresho bya electrode bitari 540.000, byiyongereyeho 68% ku mwaka; 55%; kohereza electrolyte byari toni 330.000, byiyongereyeho 63% ku mwaka. Muri rusange, muri 2022, kohereza muri rusange bateri enye zikomeye za lithium mu Bushinwa byakomeje kuba intambwe y'iterambere.
GGII iteganya ko isoko rya bateri ya lithium mu gihugu rizarenga 1TWh mu 2023. Muri byo, biteganijwe kohereza bateri z'amashanyarazi zirenga 800GWh, naho kohereza bateri zibika ingufu zirenga 180GWh, bizatuma kohereza bateri enye zikomeye za lithium byiyongera.
Nubwo ibiciro by'amabuye y'agaciro ya lithium n'umunyu wa lithium byagabanutse mu Kuboza 2022. Ariko, mu maso y'abahuza, ibi biterwa ahanini n'ingaruka z'igihe kitari icy'umwaka, kandi "izamuka ry'ibiciro bya lithium" ntiriragera.
Huaxi Securities itekereza ko ihindagurika ry'igiciro cy'umunyu wa lithiamu ari ihindagurika risanzwe ry'igihembwe cy'ubushyuhe mu nganda, atari "aho bihurira". Shen Wanhongyuan Securities itekereza kandi ko hamwe n'aho ubushobozi bwo gukora ibikoresho fatizo buzakomeza kwiyongera muri 2023, inyungu y'uruhererekane rw'inganda zikora bateri ya lithiamu izakomeza kuva hejuru kugeza hasi. Zhejiang Business Securities itekereza ko kwemezwa kw'umutungo wa lithiamu ari hejuru kuruta uko byari bisabwa mu gice cya kabiri cya 2023.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama 10-2023