Umwaka wa 2023 winjiye. Hamwe no kunoza politiki yo gukumira no kurwanya icyorezo, imbaraga z’ingamba zo guhagarika iterambere ndetse n’ingaruka nke zishingiye ku nzego z’ibanze, ibigo byinshi by’ubushakashatsi bivuga ko ubushinwa bwiyongera ku mwaka ku mwaka GDP iziyongera cyane muri uyu mwaka.Nka nganda yinkingi yubukungu bwigihugu, inganda zikora imiti zihuza umutungo ningufu zinyuranye hejuru, mugihe epfo na ruguru ijyanye nibyifuzo bya buri munsi byabaturage.Muri 2023, uruganda rukora imiti rugomba gutekereza ku guhindagurika kwizunguruka no guhinduranya inzira, none ni utuhe turere tuzahinduka umurwa mukuru ukomeye tuyere?Mu rwego rwo guhaza abasomyi, ingamba za peteroli n’imiti y’ishoramari ry’amasosiyete y’imigabane nka Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities na China Merchants Securities zizakemurwa byimazeyo.
Inama nkuru y’ubukungu y’ubukungu iherutse kuvuga neza ko hagomba gushyirwaho ingufu mu kwagura icyifuzo cy’imbere mu gihugu, kandi ihinduka rya politiki yo kurwanya icyorezo ryihuse ryihuse ry’isoko ry’umuguzi mu gihugu.Nkuko byari byitezwe ku buryo bunonosoye, abahuza benshi bemeza ko: Mu 2023, biteganijwe ko ibikenerwa mu bicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe by’imiti biteganijwe ko bizagarura iterambere, kandi isahani nshya y’ibikoresho by’imiti igira uruhare mu kuzamura ingufu nshya, ububiko bw’ingufu, imashanyarazi n’inganda za gisirikare bizakomeza komeza ubucuruzi buhanitse.Muri byo, ibikoresho bya semiconductor, ibikoresho bifotora, ibikoresho bya lithium nibindi bikwiriye kwitabwaho nabashoramari.
Ibikoresho bya Semiconductor: koresha uburyo bwo gusimbuza imbere kugirango wihutishe iterambere
Mu 2022, kubera ibidukikije by’ubukungu ku isi ndetse n’imihindagurikire y’inganda n’ingaruka z’icyorezo, inganda zose za elegitoroniki zahuye n’igitutu cy’ibikorwa.Ariko muri rusange, inganda za semiconductor mu Bushinwa ziracyatera imbere.
Raporo y’ubushakashatsi bw’agaciro ka Guoxin yerekanye ko igipimo cy’ibikoresho bya semiconductor mu gihugu cyanjye cyari hafi 10% gusa mu 2021, kandi kikaba cyari kibi mu bijyanye n'ubukire bw'ibyiciro no guhangana.Ariko, mugihe kirekire, inganda zigihugu zuzuzanya zizatangira inzira yo guhanga udushya.Biteganijwe ko ibikoresho nibikoresho byo murugo bishobora kubona ibikoresho n'amahirwe menshi, kandi ubundi buryo bwo murugo buteganijwe kugabanuka.
Mu myaka yashize, ibyifuzo bya semiconductor hamwe nisoko ryabaguzi byiyongereye gahoro gahoro.Mu 2021, igurishwa rya semiconductor ku isi ryageze kuri miliyari 555.9 z'amadolari y'Amerika, ryiyongeraho miliyari 45.5 z'amadolari ya Amerika muri 2020;biteganijwe ko izakomeza kwiyongera mu 2022, kandi igurishwa rya semiconductor rizagera kuri miliyari 601.4 US $.Hariho ubwoko bwinshi bwibikoresho bya semiconductor, kandi bitatu bya mbere mugabane wisoko ni wafer wa silicon, gaze, hamwe no gucana urumuri.Byongeye kandi, umugabane wamasoko ya polishinge yamashanyarazi hamwe nudupapuro twinshi, ibyuma byitwa lithographe bifata reagent, lithographie, imiti itose, hamwe nintego za sputtering ni 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, na 3.0%.
Raporo y’ubushakashatsi bw’agaciro ka Guangfa yizera ko guca mu bice by’ibikoresho bya semiconductor (imiti ya elegitoroniki) binyuze mu bushakashatsi bwa endogenous niterambere cyangwa guhuza kwagura no kugura ni urugero rusanzwe ku nganda z’imiti zishakisha impinduka mu myaka yashize.Mugihe ibigo byahinduye neza bishobora kubona isoko ryisumbuye mugihe twunguka inganda zihuse, twatangije umurongo wo kuzamuka kabiri.Mu rwego rwo kwihuta kwiterambere ryinganda ziciriritse zimbere mu gihugu, amasosiyete ajyanye nayo nayo yatangije amahirwe meza yo gusimburwa murugo.Ibigo bimwe bifite imbaraga zikomeye za R & D hamwe ninzego zabakiriya batsinze, hamwe no guhindura ibicuruzwa neza no kuzamura biteganijwe ko bizagabana iterambere ryihuse ryinganda ziciriritse.
Ping An Securities Research ivuga ko hari ibintu byinshi nka "silicon cycle" na macroeconomic cycle, kandi biteganijwe ko inganda za semiconductor zizava mu 2023.
Raporo y’ubushakashatsi bw’ibihugu by’iburengerazuba yizera ko kwiyongera mu kugenzura ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga muri Amerika bizihutisha ubundi buryo bwo mu gihugu bw’ibikoresho bya semiconductor.Bafite ibyiringiro kubikoresho bya semiconductor, ibice nibikoresho bifitanye isano, hamwe nisoko rya karubide ya silicon.
Ibikoresho bya Photovoltaque: Miliyari icumi -isoko ya POE isoko irindiriye gucamo
Mu 2022, mu rwego rwo guteza imbere politiki y’igihugu cyanjye, umubare w’ibikorwa bishya mu nganda z’amafoto y’imbere mu gihugu wariyongereye ku buryo bugaragara, kandi n’ibisabwa na firime ya kole ya fotora na byo byariyongereye.
Fotovoltaic glue firime ibikoresho fatizo bigabanijwe mubwoko bubiri: umuryango wa Ethylene -ethyl acetate (EVA) na polyolefin elastomer (POE).EVA, nkibikoresho byingenzi byibanze byamafoto ya kole ya fotokolta, ifite urwego rwo hejuru rwo gutumiza mu mahanga, kandi ifite umwanya munini wo kwiherera mugihe kizaza.Muri icyo gihe, biteganijwe ko icyifuzo cya EVA mu bijyanye na firime ya kole ya fotovoltaque mu gihugu cyanjye mu 2025 gishobora kugera kuri 45.05%.
Ibindi bikoresho byingenzi byingenzi POE irashobora gukoreshwa kumafoto yerekana amashanyarazi, imodoka, insinga, ifuro, ibikoresho byo murugo nibindi bice.Kugeza ubu, firime yamashanyarazi yamashanyarazi yahindutse ahantu hanini ho gukoreshwa muri POE.Dukurikije “Ikarita y’iterambere ry’inganda zo mu Bushinwa Photovoltaic (2021 Edition)”, umubare w’isoko rya filime yo mu bwoko bwa POE glue yo mu gihugu hamwe na firime polyethylene (EPE) ya kole mu 2021 wiyongereye kugera kuri 23.1%.Mu myaka yashize, hamwe n’ubwiyongere bukabije bw’umusaruro w’ibikoresho bifotora mu gihugu cyanjye ndetse n’uko POE ikomeza kwinjira muri firime y’amafoto y’amafoto, icyifuzo cya POE mu gihugu cyiyongereye cyane.
Nyamara, kubera ko inzira ya POE itanga inzitizi nyinshi, kuri ubu, amasosiyete yo mu gihugu ntabwo afite ubushobozi bwa POE, kandi ibyo POE ikoresha mu gihugu cyanjye byose bishingiye ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga.Kuva muri 2017, ibigo byimbere mu gihugu byateje imbere ibicuruzwa bya POE.Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry hamwe n’ibindi bigo byigenga biteganijwe ko bazageraho basimbure POE mu gihugu imbere.
Ibikoresho bya batiri ya Litiyumu: kohereza ibikoresho bine byingenzi byongerewe
Mu 2022, imodoka nshya y’ingufu n’Ubushinwa n’isoko ryo kubika ingufu za lithium yagumye hejuru, bituma ibicuruzwa byoherejwe na litiro byiyongera cyane.Nk’uko imibare y’ishyirahamwe ry’imodoka mu Bushinwa ibigaragaza, kuva muri Mutarama kugeza mu Gushyingo 2022, umusaruro n’igurisha ry’imodoka nshya z’imbere mu gihugu zarangije miliyoni 6.253 na miliyoni 6.067, ugereranyije, umwaka ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize, naho umugabane w’isoko ukagera kuri 25%.
Ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi bw’inganda zo mu rwego rwo hejuru (GGII) biteganijwe ko kizagurisha miliyoni zisaga 6.7 zo kugurisha imodoka nshya mu gihugu mu 2022;biteganijwe ko isoko rishya ry’imodoka z’ingufu z’Ubushinwa rizarenga miliyoni 9 mu 2023. Mu 2022, biteganijwe ko umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bwa batiri ya lithium y’Ubushinwa uzarenga 100%, umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’ibicuruzwa bikomoka ku mashanyarazi biteganijwe ko uzarenga 110%, naho umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere yo kubika ingufu za litiro yoherejwe yoherejwe irenga 150%.Ubwiyongere bukomeye bwibicuruzwa bya lithium byatumye ibintu bine byingenzi byingenzi, bibi, diaphragm, electrolyte, nibindi bikoresho bya batiri ya lithium nka lithium hexfluorophosphate na fayili y'umuringa ku buryo butandukanye.
Amakuru yerekana ko mugice cya mbere cyumwaka wa 2022, Ubushinwa ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki bya Litiyumu byamashanyarazi byohereje toni 770.000, byiyongereyeho 62% umwaka -kumwaka;kohereza ibikoresho bibi bya electrode byari toni 540.000, byiyongereyeho 68% umwaka -umwaka;55%;electrolyte yoherejwe yari toni 330.000, kwiyongera kwa 63% umwaka -umwaka.Muri rusange, mu 2022, ibicuruzwa byose byoherejwe na batiri nini ya litiro nini mu Bushinwa byakomeje kwiyongera.
GGII iteganya ko isoko rya batiri ya lithium yo mu gihugu rizarenga 1TWh mu 2023. Muri byo, biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa bitwara amashanyarazi biteganijwe kurenga 800GWh, naho ibicuruzwa byo kubika ingufu bizarenga 180GWh, ibyo bikaba bizatuma ibicuruzwa rusange byoherezwa muri bateri enye zikomeye za litiro kugira ngo birusheho kwiyongera .
Nubwo ibiciro byamabuye ya lithium numunyu wa lithium byagabanutse mukuboza 2022. Icyakora, mumaso yababunzi, ibi biterwa ahanini ningaruka zigihe kitari gito, kandi "inflection point" yibiciro bya lithium ntabwo byageze.
Huaxi Securities yemera ko ihindagurika ryigiciro cyumunyu wa lithium ari ihindagurika risanzwe ryigihe cyimpera yinganda, ntabwo "point de point".Shen Wanhongyuan Securities yizera kandi ko hamwe n’isohoka ry’ubushobozi bw’ibikoresho fatizo mu 2023, inzira y’inyungu y’urunigi rwa lithium inganda zizakomeza kuva hejuru kugeza hasi.Zhejiang Business Securities yemera ko kwatura umutungo wa lithium ari byinshi kuruta ibyo bisabwa mu gice cya kabiri cya 2023.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-10-2023