Isoko rya methanol ku isi ryo mu 2026 rigizweho ingaruka zikomeye n'amakimbirane ya politiki. Ihungabana ry'ubwikorezi mu nzira ya Hormuz ryagize ingaruka zikomeye ku masoko y'ingufu zo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, rihindura inzira z'ubucuruzi ku isi ndetse rinateza ihindagurika rikomeye mu miyoboro y'agaciro k'ingufu, aho amasoko akoresha methanol yo muri Aziya yumva afite igitutu gikomeye cy'ingufu. Ubushobozi bwa methanol ku isi burenga toni miliyoni 180 ku mwaka, nyamara igipimo cy'imikorere muri rusange kiracyari 72 75% gusa. Inganda zo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati n'izo muri Amerika y'Amajyaruguru zikomeje gukoreshwa cyane bitewe n'ingufu zihendutse zikomoka kuri gaze karemano, mu gihe inganda zo mu majyaruguru y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya zikoresha amakara na methanol zihura n'igitutu kiva ku giciro cya karubone. Gutandukana mu turere birushaho kongera ubusumbane ku isoko.
Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati ni bwo bukorera ku isi nk'ikigo cy'ingenzi cyane cyo kohereza methanol. Hafi 70% by'ibicuruzwa bya methanol by'Ubushinwa bituruka mu kigobe cya Perse, aho inganda za methanol zishingiye kuri gaze karemano muri Irani, Arabiya Sawudite na Oman ari zo ziganjemo isoko mpuzamahanga. Ibibazo byo mu karere byakomeje kugaruka mu 2026 byahungabanyije ingendo zo mu mazi, bituma amato menshi y'ubucuruzi asubira inyuma. Imashini nyinshi za methanol zo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati zagabanyije umusaruro cyangwa zigahagarara. Umusaruro utari uw'Abashinwa mu mahanga wagabanutseho 17.17% ugereranyije n'umwaka mu mezi umunani ya mbere. Imizigo myinshi igana muri Aziya yatinze koherezwa, kugera ku cyambu cy'Ubushinwa kwaragabanutse uko bikurikirana, ububiko bw'ibyambu bwakomeje kugabanuka, ibiciro bya methanol byariyongereye cyane, kandi ibihe bizaza byagiye bizamuka cyane mu bihe byinshi.
Imiterere y'Ibikenewe
Ku bijyanye n'ubusabe, methanol kuri olefin (MTO) ikomeje kuba igice kinini cy'ikoreshwa ku isi, ikaba ifite 38.5% by'ingano yose nk'isoko y'ibikoresho fatizo bya pulasitiki na resins. Umusaruro gakondo wa formaldehyde na aside asetiki ukomeza gukenerwa cyane. Methanol y'icyatsi kibisi iragaragara nk'umuyoboro mushya w'iterambere. Gucuruza lisansi yo mu mazi birihuta, aho biteganijwe ko itangwa rya lisansi ya methanol ku isi rizagera kuri toni miliyoni 4.2 mu 2026, ryiyongereyeho 31% ugereranyije n'umwaka. Ubusabe bwa methanol y'icyatsi kibisi mu muryango w'ubumwe bw'ibihugu by'Uburayi buriyongeraho 47%. Amabwiriza ya methanol y'igihe kirekire afite karubone nke yiyongera; nyamara imikorere miremire y'ubwubatsi ku bukungu bw'ibidukikije ntishobora gukemura ikibazo cy'ibura ry'ibikoresho bisanzwe by'ibanze.
Incamake y'Isoko ry'Ubushinwa
Mu gihugu cy'u Bushinwa, hagaragara imiterere yihariye y’ “ingufu zikomeye zo mu gihugu mu mahanga”. Kugabanuka kw’ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga byatumye amakara yo mu gihugu ajyanwa mu nganda za methanol kugira ngo hazamurwe ibiciro by’imikorere kugira ngo hagabanywe icyuho cy’ibicuruzwa. Ariko umwanya wo kubona ubushobozi bushya mu gihugu ni muto. Ibiciro by’amakara bihindagurika byatumye inyungu z’ibigo zigabanuka, ububiko bw’amakara bwagabanutse vuba cyane. Isoko rifite ubwinshi bw’ibicuruzwa hamwe n’ubushobozi buke bwo kugurisha, bigatuma ibiciro bihindagurika cyane mu ntambara zikomeye z’amadubu.
Icyerekezo cy'ejo hazaza
Imiterere y'ubucuruzi bw'igihe kirekire irimo guhinduka. Abaguzi bo muri Aziya bahindura amasoko y'amasoko kugira ngo badashingira ku bacuruzi bo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, bongera imigabane y'ubucuruzi ku bicuruzwa byo muri Amerika no muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba. Abakora mu nganda baburira ko inyungu zishingiye ku butaka zishingiye kuri politiki y'isi zitera imbogamizi nyinshi; ibiciro bishobora gukosorwa igihe ibintu byo mu bwato bizaba bigeze ku murongo. Mu gihe giciriritse kugeza igihe kirekire, methanol y'icyatsi kibisi n'ibikomoka ku binyabiziga byo mu mazi bizafungura ubusabe bushya, nyamara ibiciro by'ibikoresho fatizo, ibiciro bya karuboni n'ibiciro byo gutwara ibintu mu nyanja bizakomeza kugira uruhare mu bucuruzi bwa methanol. Abaguzi ku isi yose bakeneye kubaka imiyoboro itandukanye kandi ihangana n'ibibazo.
Igihe cyo kohereza ubutumwa: 23 Nzeri 2026