Mu mwaka wa 2023, isoko rya butadiene ryo mu gihugu riri hejuru cyane, igiciro cy’isoko cyiyongereyeho 22.71%, izamuka rya 44.76% ry’umwaka ku mwaka, ritangira neza. Abitabiriye isoko bemeza ko imiterere y’isoko rya butadiene ryo mu 2023 izakomeza, isoko rikwiye kwitegwa amatsiko, icyarimwe igihe cy’imikorere rusange y’isoko rya butadiene ryo mu gihugu cyangwa kizaba kiri hejuru gato y’umwaka wa 2022, imikorere rusange iri hejuru.
Ihindagurika rikomeye ry'isoko
Umusesenguzi wa Jin Lianchuang, Zhang Xiuping, yavuze ko inganda zari zitishimiye isoko rya butadiene muri Mutarama bitewe n’ingaruka z’umusaruro w’uruganda rwa Shenghong Refining n’ibinyabutabire. Ariko, kubungabunga inganda za butadiene muri Zhejiang Petrochemical na Zhenhai Refining n’uruganda rwa chimique muri Gashyantare na Werurwe byazamuye buhoro buhoro ikirere cy’isoko. Byongeye kandi, icyifuzo cy’uruganda rwa Tianchen Qixiang na Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., LTD. rwa acrylonitrile — butadiene — styrene copolymer (ABS) kirimo kwiyongera buhoro buhoro. Isoko ririmo gushakisha byinshi.
Nubwo ishami rya butadiene mu cyiciro cya kabiri cya Zhejiang Petrochemical riteganijwe gufungwa kugira ngo rikomeze gusanwa hagati muri Gashyantare, kandi uruganda rwa Zhenhai Refining and Chemical narwo ruteganijwe kuvugururwa mu mpera za Gashyantare, uruganda rwa Hainan Refining n'urwa Chemical hamwe n'uruganda rwa petrochina Guangdong Petrochemical biteganijwe gutangira gukora muri Gashyantare. Bitewe n'ingaruka zikomeye, umusaruro wa butadiene witezweho kuba uhamye ariko ntuhindagurika, kandi igiciro ku isoko cyitezweho gukomeza kuba hejuru.
Ukurikije uko ubushobozi bwa bifienne buzaba bwarekuwe mu 2023, hashobora kuba hari toni miliyoni 1.04 z'ubushobozi bushya bwarekuwe mu mwaka wose, ariko gutinda kw'ishyirwaho rimwe na rimwe ntigushobora kwirengagizwa. Muri icyo gihe, inganda nyinshi nshya zagombaga gushyirwa mu bikorwa mu mpera z'umwaka ushize zatinze mu gice cya mbere cy'uyu mwaka. Uretse Shenghong Refining na Chemical, zimwe mu nganda za butadiene nka Dongming Petrochemical nazo zitezwe gutangira gukora. Mu gice cya mbere cy'umwaka, zagizweho ingaruka n'irekurwa ry'ubushobozi bushya bw'umusaruro, itangwa rya butadiene rizagenda rigabanuka buhoro buhoro, isoko cyangwa rigaragaze icyerekezo cyo gufungura.
Biteganijwe ko umubare muto w’ibikoresho bishya bya butadiene bizashyirwa mu bikorwa mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka, kandi biteganijwe ko ibikoresho bishya bizashyirwa mu bikorwa. Ubwiyongere bw’ibikenewe buzaba buruta ubwiyongere bw’ibicuruzwa, kandi ikibazo cy’isoko kizakomeza kuba gito.
Byongeye kandi, hamwe no kunoza no guhindura politiki y’icyorezo ndetse n’icyizere cyo kuzamuka k’ubukungu, igikenewe mu gihugu hose mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka gishobora kuzamuka ugereranije n’igice cya mbere cy’umwaka, kandi inkunga y’ibiciro ku byifuzo nayo irazamuka ugereranyije n’igice cya mbere cy’umwaka. Ibiciro rusange bya butadiene nk’ibikoresho fatizo biri hejuru ugereranyije n’igice cya mbere cy’umwaka.
Igiciro cy'ibikoresho fatizo kiragoye kugabanuka
Nk'ibikoresho bya pompestone, nk'ibikoresho fatizo bya butadiene, byashyigikiwe n'ubwiyongere bw'abaguzi mu 2022, kandi umusaruro w'amavuta y'ubwonko y'amabuye wakomeje kwiyongera umwaka wose. Dukurikije amakuru aturuka mu Kigo cy'Igihugu gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare, umusaruro w'amavuta y'ubwonko y'amabuye mu gihugu cyanjye mu 2022 wari toni miliyoni 54.78, ubwiyongere bwa 10.51% ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize; ingano y'amavuta y'ubwonko y'amabuye yatumijwe mu mahanga yari toni miliyoni 9.26, naho ikoreshwa ry'amavuta y'ubwonko y'amabuye ryari toni miliyoni 63.99 z'ikoreshwa rya toni miliyoni 63.99. , Yiyongereyeho 13.21% ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize.
Mu 2023, ubwo icyorezo cyagendaga kigabanuka buhoro buhoro, politiki ni nziza, ubukungu bwagiye buzamuka buhoro buhoro, imikorere y’inganda zikora peteroli iziyongera, kandi icyifuzo cya peteroli yo mu nganda zikora peteroli kiziyongera. Biteganijwe ko iki kibazo kizakomeza kugeza mu gihembwe cya gatatu. Mu gihembwe cya kane, ikigo cy’ingufu cya peteroli cyatangiye gukoresha ibisanzwe mu gihe cy’ibiruhuko, kandi imirimo yo kubaka yagabanutse. Ubukene bwa peteroli na peteroli bwari bufite ibyago byo kugabanuka.
Muri rusange, ubwo uruganda rw’ibikomoka kuri peteroli rwinjiye mu gihembwe cya kabiri cyo kubungabunga, isoko rya peteroli ryaragabanutse kandi rishyigikira izamuka ry’isoko. Ariko, bitewe n’igabanuka ry’ubukungu bw’isi n’ibikenewe bidahagije, izamuka ry’ibiciro ryagabanutse, kandi igiciro gishobora gukomeza guhindurwa nyuma y’uko igiciro kibaye kinini. Igihembwe cya gatatu cyari igihe cy’ingendo gakondo. Muri iki cyiciro, ibiciro bya peteroli itakaranze byagarutse buhoro buhoro ku rugero rukwiye. Inyungu y’igikoresho cyo gucikamo ibice yariyongereye, ibikorwa by’isoko byariyongereye, kandi ikiguzi cy’ibikoresho fatizo cyari cyoroshye kugeza ku rwego rwo hasi. Mu gihembwe cya kane, isoko rya peteroli rizinjira mu ikoreshwa risanzwe ry’igihe kitari icy’umwaka, ikiguzi cyaragabanutse, kandi igiciro cya peteroli itakaranze kizongera kugabanuka.
Ukurikije uko inganda zitunganya ibikomoka ku bimera zibitunganya, gahunda yo kwihutisha kubaka Umushinga wo Gutunganya Ibirwa bya Yulong iteganyijwe gushyirwa mu bikorwa mu mpera za 2023. Icyiciro cya kabiri cya Hainan Petrochemical Hainan Refining and Chemical, Zhenhai Refining Phase I na CNOOC Petrochemical Plan byashyizwe imbere kuva mu 2023 kugeza mu 2024. Izamuka ry'umutungo wa peteroli y'ibikomoka ku bimera ni ingirakamaro ku isoko rya peteroli, bityo bishyigikira ibiciro biri hasi harimo na butadiene.
Ubwiyongere bw'ibikenewe nyuma y'ibicuruzwa
Mu mwaka wa 2023, ingaruka za politiki nziza nko kugabanyirizwa umusoro ku bigega bya butadiene zarushijeho kuba nziza, kandi inganda zikora kawunga zo mu rwego rwo hejuru zari ziteguye neza. Muri icyo gihe, kunoza ingamba zo gukumira icyorezo mu gihugu byanazanye inyungu ku isoko ry’ibigega bya kawunga. Biteganijwe ko kwiyongera kw’ibikenewe mu gihe cy’iminsi mikuru y’iserukiramuco ry’impeshyi, ndetse no mu ntangiriro z’ibigega bya butadiene, bizinjira ku isoko mu ntangiriro za 2023, kandi ubusabe bwa butadiene buziyongera cyane.
Ukurikije uko ubushobozi bwo gusohora mu 2023 bushobora kuba bungana na toni 40.000 gusa ku mwaka; capsule nshya ya capsule ifite toni 273.000; isoko rya polypropylene na chunyrene -butadiene -lyzyrene convergence Ubushobozi bwo gukora ni toni 150.000 ku mwaka; ABS yongereye toni 444.900 ku mwaka, kandi ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora Tinto glue ni toni 50.000 ku mwaka; Ntibigoye kubona ko igikoresho gishya gihora gishyirwa mu bikorwa, kandi icyifuzo cyo hasi cyitezweho kwiyongera cyane. Niba ubushobozi bwo gukora bwavuzwe haruguru butanzwe ku gihe, nta gushidikanya ko ari inyungu ikomeye ku isoko rya butadiene.
Byongeye kandi, uko politiki yo gukumira icyorezo ikomeje kunozwa, ingaruka z'ibyorezo ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga n'ibyoherezwa mu mahanga zizagenda zigabanuka buhoro buhoro mu gihe kizaza. Dutegereje umwaka wa 2023, igipimo cyo kwihaza muri butadiene kiziyongera, ingano y'ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga izakomeza kugabanuka, ariko kongera gukenerwa mu mahanga bizafasha ingano y'ibicuruzwa bitadiene byoherezwa mu mahanga kwiyongera kurushaho. Kugira ngo habeho kuringaniza neza imiterere y'isoko ry'imbere mu gihugu n'uburyo isoko ry'imbere mu gihugu ritanga umusaruro, kongera ibyoherezwa mu mahanga bishobora kuba intego y'ibigo bitunganya butadiene mu gihugu.
Igihe cyo kohereza: 23 Gashyantare 2023